Steph Curry. LeBron James. Kawhi Leonard. Chris Paul. Russell Westbrook. By just about any measure these are 5 of the NBA’s top 10 players, and by several measures, including Player Efficiency Rating (PER), Win Shares per 48 (WS/48), and Real Plus-Minus (RPM), they’re 5 of the top 6. And all of them elected to rest this summer rather than play in the Olympics for Team USA.
As a result, this was never going to be another Dream Team—a squad easily capable of dominating the competition on talent alone. Rather, they’d need not only talent but also a high level of execution and effort to cruise to a gold medal, making roster and lineup construction all the more important.
Thus far both the roster and the lineup choices are looking a bit shaky, along with the execution and effort.
On the plus side, the team is undefeated through group play and thus the top qualifier heading into the quarterfinals. For any other country this would be cause for celebration.
But since they’re such overwhelming favorites, the bigger story is the fact that they’ve barely eked out each of the past 3 wins, as Australia, Serbia, and France piled up points against them while shooting around 60% inside the arc. The team defense—which was viewed as a strength heading into the tournament—has allowed 92 points per game over that span.
So why is the defense hemorrhaging points? For one, they’re struggling mightily to contain ball handlers, with guards Matthew Dellavedova and Patty Mills of Australia, Milos Teodosic of Serbia, and Nando De Colo and Thomas Heurtel of France getting anywhere they want on the court, including driving to the rim for lightly-contested layups, stepping back for open 3s, and drawing out extra defenders before finding open teammates. Second, Team USA is demonstrating a troublesome lack of awareness dealing with the off-ball screens and cuts that are more prevalent in the relatively isolation-free international game. Opposing big men are slipping off picks for easy buckets with alarming frequency.
To see how roster and lineup construction could alleviate these defensive issues, let’s look back at the 2010 FIBA World Cup. Much like today, in 2010 Kevin Durant was the only consensus elite talent to play for Team USA [in fact he was the only 2010 All-NBA player on the roster]. Even so, Team USA went 8-0 in the tournament with just one close victory in group play and nothing but convincing wins in the elimination rounds. Their success was predicated on defense as they held every opponent under 80 points.
Team USA built its 2010 roster around Durant, with 3 defensive-minded facilitators alongside him in the starting lineup: Chauncey Billups, Lamar Odom, and Andre Iguodala. Durant functioned as the clear go-to scorer averaging 23 points a game, and no one else averaged double figures. Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose split time and used their athleticism primarily on the defensive end, while Eric Gordon and Steph Curry acted as spot-up shooters off the bench, and Rudy Gay served as a bench scorer. To round out the roster, Kevin Love was a situational rebounder, Tyson Chandler a situational defender, and Danny Granger a situational scorer—all playing under 10 minutes a game.
This year’s team has much less clearly-defined roles, and rather than surrounding Durant with defensive-minded facilitators, the regular starters include Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony, and DeMarcus Cousins—three high-usage scorers often plagued by defensive lapses.
The roster in general has too many players of this type, with DeMar DeRozan standing out as an additional high-usage, mediocre defensive player who lacks Durant’s ridiculous efficiency and outside shooting ability. His inclusion on the roster is only slightly more understandable than that of Harrison Barnes, a player who seems to keep failing upward. Despite an uninspiring career to this point and an objectively terrible recent playoff performance, Barnes now finds himself with a max contract and a spot on the US Olympic team. Which is really awesome for him, individually. Nevertheless, it’s a wasted roster spot.
Team USA’s roster is of course not going to change, but that doesn’t mean we can’t think about who should have been selected instead. Excluding everyone who explicitly turned down the opportunity, here are my top picks from least to most impactful:
6. Jae Crowder, Celtics
The Celtics had the league’s 4th best defense this year, and Crowder’s defensive versatility, effort, and awareness played a substantial role in that. He’s only an average 3-point shooter and ball handler, which explains why he’s not higher on the list.
Honestly he’s one of a few Celtics who would’ve been a good fit for Team USA. Avery Bradley’s on-ball defense plus shooting or Amir Johnson’s pick-and-roll defense, efficiency, and ability to defend in space would certainly help as well, and I’d expect any one of these Celtics to be more useful than DeRozan or Barnes.
5. Patrick Beverley, Rockets
Anyone who’s watched Patrick Beverley knows that he’s one of the league’s most disruptive perimeter defenders. He frustrates ball handlers by crowding them and yet still cutting off their driving angles.
Given Team USA’s struggles with opposing guards, Beverley would be a nice addition. Unlike the vast majority of the existing roster, he’s also used to playing a supporting role on offense alongside a high-usage scorer. Beverley played internationally for several years before joining the Rockets, even being named Eurocup MVP, which gives him another bit of relevant experience that most of the team lacks.
4. George Hill, Jazz
Much like Beverley, George Hill could function as a perimeter stopper and spot-up shooter while providing secondary ball handling as well. He’s played a similar role for some very good Pacers teams, and he and Paul George have been anywhere from +3 to +10 points per 100 possessions when on the court together in recent years. I’ll give Hill the slight nod over Beverley for his experience with Paul George and consistently strong postseason performances, though either one would help solve the team’s issues containing dribble penetration.
3. Andre Iguodala, Warriors
In case there was any doubt, of course it would’ve made sense to bring back Iguodala. His skillset is pretty much perfect for a team like this, as demonstrated by his contributions in helping Team USA coast to gold in 2010 and 2012.
His role with the Warriors is essentially identical to what he’s asked to do on the national team: shut down the opposition’s leading scorer, maintain defensive focus to prevent easy baskets, keep the ball moving on offense, and get out in transition. For more on Iggy, click here.
2. Danny Green, Spurs
Arguably the league’s best perimeter defender over the past 5 years not named Tony Allen. While Tony Allen is slowing down at age 34 and doesn’t provide much offense, Green is still in his prime and adding value offensively with his floor spacing, ball movement, and good decision-making. Green uncharacteristically didn’t shoot well during the regular season, but in the playoffs he was back to his sharpshooting ways. Green rates as one of the very few 3-point marksmen who actually hits a higher percentage in the playoffs, showing that he has no trouble performing under pressure.
Like Beverley, Green has some international experience, as he spent the 2011 lockout playing in the Euroleague for Union Olimpija of Slovenia.
1. Paul Millsap, Hawks
Millsap was the single most bizarre and inexplicable exclusion from the initial 30-player pool for Olympic consideration [okay, it’s either him or Damian Lillard, though Lillard was added shortly thereafter and expressly declined to participate]. He’s the best player on a team that’s averaged 54 wins over the past 2 seasons, and he essentially has no flaws. As a big man who can rebound, pass, shoot, score in the post, and defend any of 3 positions, Millsap would be incredibly valuable to a US team that can’t seem to find a working frontcourt combination.
Millsap is the leader of Atlanta’s defense which ranked 2nd in the league behind only the Spurs. Incidentally, both the Spurs and Hawks excel in playing the sort of hyper-aware, cohesive team defense that would really benefit Team USA right now, yet no Spurs or Hawks are on the roster. It’s tough to imagine a lineup with Millsap and Danny Green routinely giving up open driving lanes and cuts to the rim as Team USA has over the past 3 games.
Yet the roster cannot change, and as such, the best we can do is change the lineup. So let’s move Cousins and either Melo or Kyrie to the bench to improve the team defense and bring this team closer to the successful 2010 model. This team doesn’t have Iguodala, Odom, Billups, or Westbrook to lock down opponents, but guys like Draymond, Paul George, Jimmy Butler, and Kyle Lowry are fully capable of filling that role and continuing Team USA’s dominance.
Leave a Reply