June 18, 2018
Last year I wrote about my scouting philosophy and the types of players I typically rate higher than the consensus. In short, I often prefer (i) more versatile players over ones with a signature skill, (ii) those who pass well, (iii) those who’ve demonstrated functional athleticism (in the form of steals, blocks, and offensive rebounds), and (iv) players who make free throws.
I try not to get too hung up on a player’s shooting form or the tightness of his handle. Those things often improve over time through coaching and repetition. On the other hand, I consider a player’s court vision, anticipation, and effort to be more ingrained.
I’ve identified a handful of players I see as particularly underrated this year, which I’ll (hopefully) discuss more in a later post.
As for the single most underrated prospect, that honor belongs to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Embed from Getty ImagesShai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky) – 19.9 years old, 6’6” 180 pounds, 6’11.5” wingspan
Optimistic Comp: Manu Ginobili, though nominally right-handed
Position: Perimeter everything
Consensus Rank: Late Lottery / Mid First Round
My Rank: Top 5, probably #3 overall
Shai’s weaknesses are well known: a slow first step, not an explosive leaper, a loose handle, and a deliberate shooting stroke particularly from 3. Defensively he doesn’t have the quickest feet and can get overly upright at times. He’s also exceptionally skinny. For some scouts, these weaknesses give Shai a low floor and a fairly low ceiling as well, no matter his role. Primary ball handlers should be quicker or more explosive; lockdown defenders should be stronger; off-ball shooters/scorers should have a quick, confident release.
So why is he so high on my personal draft board?
One reason is that ball handlers with his size and skill level are rare, much more so than centers who can score inside the arc and rebound but can’t defend in space. Shai was one of the top few point guards in college basketball last year, leading a top-25 offense as a freshman while averaging roughly 15 points and 5 assists a game. Yet unlike the NCAA’s other top point guards, Shai’s standing reach (8’8”) is typical of a small forward, and his 6’11.5” wingspan is within half an inch of centers Mo Wagner and Sagaba Konate.
Another reason is his speed. By that I mean processing speed, not foot speed. It’s the ability to instantaneously recognize and react to player positioning, movement, advantages, and spacing. For example, when Shai gets the ball off a defensive rebound, he immediately surveys the court for transition opportunities. Here’s an outlet pass he threw to Quade Green resulting in a transition dunk. It looks like a simple play, but it’s one very few players make. Most guards instinctively take a few dribbles upon gaining possession and miss out on chances like this.
In the half court, Shai is an excellent pick-and-roll ball handler because he not only sees the floor well but also anticipates passing and driving angles and understands how to create them. When big defenders commit to hedging, trapping, or even shading towards him to wall off the driving lane, Shai uses his dribble to draw them out and then hit the roll man for an uncontested layup or dunk.
When the roll man is covered, Shai has a knack for getting to the rim himself. Nearly half (44%) of his field goal attempts came around the rim this year, which he converted at a 61% clip.*
Those numbers are even more impressive in context, considering Kentucky’s lack of floor spacers and distributors around Shai. Kentucky’s most common lineup alongside him—its starting lineup for most of the season—featured 2 conventional non-shooting bigs (Nick Richards and PJ Washington), slasher Hamidou Diallo, and marginal outside shooting threat Kevin Knox (34.1% from 3). Kentucky ranked last in the SEC by a wide margin in both 3-point makes and 3-point attempts. Those other 4 starters also averaged only 4.3 combined assists a game, compared to 6.3 turnovers.
As a result, Shai typically faced a clogged lane in front of him, while needing to create all of his scoring opportunities for himself. 86.3% of Shai’s field goals around the rim were unassisted. That’s comparable to uber-creator Trae Young (88.9%) and a significantly higher percentage than Collin Sexton (75.3%), Jalen Brunson (78.4%), and Jevon Carter (78.8%).
Though Shai doesn’t have a quick first step from a standstill position, he expertly uses screens, misdirection, hesitation dribbles, and leverage to generate open looks in confined spaces. His Eurostep and spin move are among the most controlled and effective you’ll see in college basketball. Shai’s phenomenal length also comes in handy, as he’s able to extend over and around defenders without a tremendous amount of lift.
A third reason I’m particularly high on Shai is his ambidexterity. Most NBA players can finish around the rim with their off-hand; some can capably drive to their off-hand side. Very few are equally adept with either hand. What really stands out watching Shai is that, apart from his jumper, there’s no way to tell if he’s right-handed or left-handed. Though he’s a right-handed jumpshooter, Shai probably dribbles more with his left hand and excels driving left as well.
Moreover, what truly sets him apart at the NBA level is his ability to pass with either hand. It’s a skill that almost no one possesses—not even primary ball handlers in the NBA. Shai’s flair for whipping cross-court passes on the move with either hand is reminiscent of Ginobili. On a team like the Spurs, I can picture him running precision Hammer sets to generate an open corner 3 from either side.
And here’s another play combining his off-hand passing and processing speed. With Shai handling the ball just above the arc, Kentucky runs a set designed to spring Knox coming off a screen, but a Mississippi defender snuffs it out and jumps the passing lane just as Shai is about to deliver the pass. What looks like a sure steal and a breakaway layup for Ole Miss turns into a Knox layup instead, thanks to Shai’s split-second adjustment—firing a left-handed bounce pass just beyond the defender’s reach.
On the other end, Shai’s length, IQ, and effort should make him a plus defender. Before becoming the clear leader of Kentucky’s offense, Shai earned his early-season minutes as the team’s defensive stopper. He racked up 30 steals in just 372 minutes in November and December, or 3.2 steals per 40 minutes. Shai toned down his defensive intensity to conserve energy as his offensive role expanded and his minutes surged from 20-something to 35+ per game. Even so, he often seemed to function as the captain of Kentucky’s stout defense, calling out assignments, switches, and rotations.
I find that the concerns about Shai’s defense owing to his skinny frame are overblown. Length is more important than strength on the perimeter. You wouldn’t want him battling big men in the post or for rebounding position, but that’s true of all but a handful of guards and shouldn’t be considered any sort of real negative. The last couple first round picks with his body type—Dejounte Murray and Delon Wright—are among the best perimeter defenders in the league statistically.
Similarly overblown are concerns that he can’t shoot. He’s an excellent free throw shooter who shot the ball well percentage-wise from every part of the floor, including beyond the arc. He’s also by all accounts an extremely hard worker who listens to coaching. I think this is borne out by the improvement he showed throughout his freshman season. Shai went from unheralded recruit (by Kentucky’s standards) and 6th man to easily the team’s most indispensable player, constantly adding new wrinkles to his game. Late in the season he calmly drilled stepback and turnaround jumpers that he never would’ve attempted early on.
Shai’s footwork on his drives also noticeably improved over the course of the year. Whereas initially he struggled to deal with contact and get his steps right driving to the rim against better competition, resulting in some awkward attempts and blocked shots, he ultimately figured it out. In 6 SEC Tournament and NCAA Tournament games, he averaged an efficient 21 points while generating 8.3 free throw attempts a game. Based on Shai’s skill development during his freshman year, I strongly believe that he’ll be able to refine his jumper as a pro and make it a strength rather than a weakness.
Shai’s competitiveness, leadership, and demonstrated capacity to improve strengthen my belief that he’ll be a really good NBA player, above and beyond his expected draft slot. He always wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line, particularly including late-game foul situations. I watched a lot of SEC basketball this year, and I’m pretty sure he hit more clutch free throws than anyone else in the conference—and more than everyone else on his team combined. In addition, I find it particularly impressive when a player transitions from defensive stopper to primary offensive threat. Most of the time, this transition occurs over the span of a few years. Shai did it in the span of a few months.
Check back before the draft for (shorter) write-ups on the other members of my underrated prospect lineup.
* Shooting statistics courtesy of hoop-math.com. All other stats are from sports-reference.com.