Why Tyler Johnson should be the Bulls’ #1 Target

[Originally posted on Blog-A-Bull]

I think by now we all have a fairly good grasp of the team’s strengths and weaknesses entering the off-season.

Strengths:

1. Jimmy Butler, an increasingly ball-dominant scorer who can lock down either wing position defensively and who performed well in a point forward sort of role at times last year.
2. Big men. With the addition of Robin Lopez, I’d say that 4 of the team’s top 5 players are limited to the C/PF spots, unless Mike Dunleavy’s back problems suddenly disappear or some young player vastly exceeds expectations.
3. It really shouldn’t be this hard to find a third team strength. Can I say Jimmy Butler again?

Weaknesses:

1. Perimeter defense. It seems that, based on the current roster, Jose Calderon and Doug McDermott both would be in the starting lineup. I’m thinking that’s not a great idea. Help needed.
2. Athleticism. This is very much related to the first weakness. Have I mentioned lately that Doug was the first player in league history to block fewer than 15 shots and grab fewer than 15 steals in 1500+ minutes?
3. Shot creation. It’s really just Butler for the most part. Niko has shown flashes. Bobby Portis, Jerian Grant, and Spencer Dinwiddie thus far have demonstrated mostly the ability to create bad shots that you wish they wouldn’t take.

All of these weaknesses speak to the general lack of high-ceiling talent on the roster, which is depressing. I would like to do something about that.

So how should the Bulls approach free agency? None of the team’s big men are All-Star caliber, but barring Al Horford or Hassan Whiteside clamoring to play in Chicago, I think it’s fair to conclude that the Bulls’ financial resources would not be best spent on another C/PF type.

Moving to the backcourt, the ideal addition is someone who can create good shots for himself but who also excels off the ball. Derrick and Jimmy didn’t pair well in part because Derrick’s skills and tendencies were especially ill-suited for playing off the ball; the Bulls should try to avoid replicating that situation. Furthermore, the optimal free agent target is someone who’s athletic and who won’t exacerbate the defensive issues on the perimeter—preferably someone young enough to be part of the long-term core.

Which brings me to Tyler Johnson.

 

Here are a few of my scouting notes on Johnson from a report that I put together a few months ago:

Johnson creates own shot with ease. He possesses a tight handle and a quick release shooting off the dribble. He also utilizes a hesitation dribble to great effect. The majority of his 2-point field goals are unassisted.

He’s very comfortable and effective off the ball. Johnson spots up around the arc, sets screens, runs around screens, and dives to the rim. He ranks in the 95th percentile or better off cuts, screens, and hand offs.

Defensively Johnson has active hands with excellent reflexes. He frequently deflects passes & alters shots in the lane (1.4 steals & 0.6 blocks per 36 for his career).

Sounds pretty good, right? Here’s my overall analysis of Johnson and his potential fit:

Tyler Johnson is a combo guard in the complimentary sense of the term. With his quickness, agility, shot creation, and shooting ability, he possesses most of the traits associated with the point guard and shooting guard positions, and he’s an acceptable defender at either position, especially as lineups trend smaller. Although he doesn’t always make the best decisions while running an offense, decision-making typically improves with experience, and Johnson never really played the point in college. I expect Johnson will continue to improve his pure PG skills, particularly his assist rate and AST/TO ratio, as his career moves forward.

At present, a team should not rely on Johnson to assume the lion’s share of the ball handling duties when he is in the lineup, but rather he should function as a secondary or co-lead ball handler with substantial opportunity to contribute off the ball as well.

Click here for my full Tyler Johnson scouting report, including a bunch of video clips demonstrating his strengths and weaknesses (but mostly strengths).

Johnson qualifies for the Gilbert Arenas rule, and as such (a) his maximum salary in Years 1 and 2 is capped at the MLE, making his overall max contract around $35.5 million for 3 years or $60.5 million over 4, and (b) the Heat can match any offer using the Early Bird exception.

The Heat clearly like him and would prefer to keep him, but a couple factors lead me to believe that he might be more attainable than a typical restricted free agent. First, the emergence of Josh Richardson late last season made him somewhat expendable. If the Heat re-sign Wade and hang onto Dragic, they already have 3 guards to soak up backcourt minutes, so it might be tough to justify matching a substantial offer for Johnson. Second, the July moratorium is much shorter this year, so the Heat, a notably active team in free agency, won’t have as much time to wait on superstar decisions before contracts can be signed. If guys like Durant and Whiteside haven’t made up their minds, the Heat may be put in a tough spot deciding whether to match an offer sheet and lose around $5 million in cap room.

My guess is that a bunch of teams are interested in Johnson, so if I were in the Bulls’ position I’d make a strong offer in the neighborhood of $11-$12 million a year for 4 years. While the Bulls’ cap hit each year would be the average annual value of the contract, the Heat would add around $17 million to their payroll in each of Year 3 and Year 4 to retain him, and I question whether they’d be willing to do so.

What do you think?