Five Underrated NBA Draft Prospects

A couple days ago I wrote about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as my pick for the most underrated prospect in the 2018 NBA Draft. Now I’ll fill out my all-underrated lineup around him, starting with De’Anthony Melton. Scroll down for write-ups on Zhaire Smith, Josh Okogie, and Gary Clark.

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De’Anthony Melton (USC) – 20.0 years old, 6’3.25” 193 pounds, 6’8.5” wingspan
Optimistic Comp: cross between Nate McMillan and Jrue Holiday
Position: Perimeter Defender + Distributor
Consensus Rank: Late First Round / Early Second Round
My Rank: Late Lottery

Melton’s primary value initially will come on the defensive end. He’s a tenacious on-ball defender with lightning-quick hands, physicality and exceptional lateral movement that should make him among the best defenders of point guards and shooting guards alike. He led the Pac-12 in both steals and steal percentage as a freshman.

He also has tremendous instincts and timing as a help defender, resulting in not only steals but also a number of highlight-worthy blocks that you typically don’t see from a player of his size. Melton’s not a high-flyer on the level of the next underrated prospect on this list, though he gets off the ground quickly and goes after the ball aggressively. He averaged 1.5 blocks per 40 minutes at USC.

Though Melton currently lacks a point guard’s handle, his court vision is outstanding. He uses it to great effect in transition, particularly as he turns defense into offense after forcing a turnover (clip 1 below). His vision also gives him a significant amount of upside as a pick-and-roll ball handler if he can convince defenders to respect his jumper or his drives to the rim (clip 2).

Major questions are whether he can shoot (28.4% 3s, 70.6% FT at USC), whether he’s big enough to be a truly difference-making defender at the next level (6’8.5″ wingspan), and whether he can develop his handle enough to run point.

In response to the first question, I think Melton can become at least a decent jumpshooter. Plenty of prospects, including guards, shoot like that their freshman year and become capable 3-point threats in the pros—Mike Conley and Jrue Holiday to name a couple. It’s possible that Melton’s already much improved in that area following his extended absence this season. He calmly drained a few catch-and-shoot 3s in the combine scrimmages while flashing smooth pull-up and turnaround jumpers as well.

But even if that part of his game remains mediocre he should still be useful. I see him potentially as a cross between Nate McMillan and Holiday because I think those two players represent the poles of a continuum of favorable outcomes for Melton. If he’s effectively a fifth option as a scorer but his defense and distribution skills translate, that’s McMillan. If his shot becomes a weapon, then he could take on a high-usage role like Holiday and expend a bit less energy defensively. Anywhere on that continuum lies a good NBA player.

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Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech) – 19.0 years old, 6’4” 199 pounds, 6’9.75” wingspan
Optimistic Comp: Jimmy Butler, with that same Texas swag
Position: Multifaceted Defender / Opportunistic Bucket-Getter
Consensus Rank: Mid First Round
My Rank: Mid Lottery

The Jimmy Butler comp is really optimistic. However, it’s not farfetched, and that’s basically the point. There are a lot of similarities in their profiles, even beyond them both being Texans overlooked in the recruiting process. For example, consider the following shared traits based primarily on their college careers:

• Smothering, lockdown defense on the wing
• Strength sufficient to defend 4s
• Extremely high offensive rebound rate for a non-big
• Exceptionally low turnover rate
• More assists than turnovers, by a wide margin
• Efficient scoring on average usage
• Low 3-point attempt rate
• Remarkably high Offensive Rating (Zhaire ranked 2nd in the Big 12; Butler led the Big East one year and finished 2nd the next), made even more remarkable by the fact that they’re known primarily for defense, not offense
• Mediocre size, likely suppressing draft stock (Butler has just a 6’7.5” wingspan despite being a few inches taller)

The main differences between the two players are (i) Butler’s free throw rate was otherworldly whereas Zhaire’s is merely above average, and (ii) Zhaire blocked a lot more shots. This suggests to me that while they’re broadly similar, they don’t share the same signature characteristic. For Butler, it’s his impeccable body control, while for Zhaire, it’s the explosive leaping ability you can see below.

Yet the similarities overwhelm the differences. Stylistically, both players are able to leverage their physical strength and decision-making to be effective ball handlers and distributors according to the stats despite fairly clunky dribbling. Butler’s exceptionally low turnover rate has held firm as a pro, with his assist rate and usage steadily rising as he’s become more comfortable off the dribble.

If, like me, you believe that Zhaire shares Butler’s determination, work ethic, and baseline skills that led to their similar college performance, that same type of progression may be a distinct possibility for Zhaire. In pre-draft workouts he’s already shown some semblance of a tighter and more advanced handle.

Even if Zhaire’s offense doesn’t progress to nearly that same level, he’s worth a lottery pick in this draft. Before Butler became a star, he earned plenty of minutes on a winning team through his defensive effort and discipline, without being any sort of focal point offensively or outside shooting threat. Zhaire has already shown he can thrive in that role, as he went from an unheralded 7th or 8th man in the Texas Tech rotation to leading the nation’s #4 defense and getting his offense largely through putbacks and cuts.

Wings with elite athleticism, effort, discipline, and defensive aptitude are almost guaranteed to be solid rotation players at a minimum. See Thabo Sefolosha’s career for an example. Even though Zhaire is one of the youngest players in the draft and unrefined offensively, I still think he’s one of the safest picks. Those same positive traits also give him a ton of upside.

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Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech) – 19.8 years old, 6’4.5” 211 pounds, 7’0” wingspan
Optimistic Comp: Richard Jefferson, with a hint of Bradley Beal
Position: 3&D Wing
Consensus Rank: Late First Round
My Rank: Mid First Round

A few months ago I wrote about what I termed the 3&D Conundrum, with the basic premise being that 3&D players are quite valuable but also extremely context-dependent. I concluded that teams shouldn’t draft a pure 3&D player with a mid to high lottery pick, no matter how well he fits the mold, because a well-run team can find such players later in the draft.

The comparison between Josh Okogie and likely mid-lottery selection Mikal Bridges is a perfect example. I see Okogie as perhaps the best pure 3&D prospect in the draft. His shooting numbers are worse than Mikal’s across the board, though I chalk that up entirely to context.

Bridges played with ideal spacing, an elite distributor at point guard, other scoring threats, and in a system designed to get him open looks off the catch.

Okogie had none of those advantages. He was the clear #1 option on a woefully outgunned team with minimal outside shooting and shaky point guard play. As a result, Okogie wound up needing to create much of his own offense and taking lots of forced jumpers off the dribble. The above photo pretty fairly encapsulates his season—shooting a fadeaway dribble jumper against the nation’s best defense while being double teamed. After missing most of Georgia Tech’s weak non-conference slate, Okogie faced a top-10 overall defense in a quarter of his games (6 out of 24).

I like Bridges as a prospect, but I would have no interest in drafting him when Okogie almost certainly will be available 12-15 picks later. Although Bridges is 2-3 inches taller, consider the following:

• They have the same (7-foot) wingspan
• Their functional athletic indicators (steals, blocks, offensive rebounds) are essentially identical
• Okogie is stronger, more explosive, and probably a bit quicker as well
• Okogie is more than 2 years younger
• Okogie has a much higher free throw rate, usage rate, and unassisted field goal rate, suggesting some additional potential as a shot creator
• Mikal’s 3-point and free throw shooting efficiency advantages are small, with the outside shooting advantage disappearing when limited to catch-and-shoot attempts

This last item is particularly notable. Both Bridges and Okogie boast elite efficiency on catch-and-shoot jumpers, at 1.34 points per shot according to their Syngergy scouting reports at NBA.com. The difference is that nearly half of Mikal’s shots were of the catch-and-shoot variety, compared to only a quarter for Okogie. Based on their disparate circumstances, the degree of difficulty on Okogie’s field goal attempts was simply much higher.

I am not suggesting that Okogie is some sort of can’t-miss prospect. He really struggles to utilize his athleticism on drives to the rim, as his coordination and handle are much better suited to finishing off of lobs and cuts rather than off the dribble. His high free throw rate stems more from his strength and aggressiveness as opposed to any sort of enviable body control. He also lacks discipline defensively, gambling for steals too much and getting lost at times off-the-ball.

But with good coaching and in a system conducive to the 3&D skillset, Okogie is just the sort of prospect that should thrive and outperform his draft slot.

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Gary Clark (Cincinnati) – 23.5 years old, 6’7.5” 220 pounds, 6’10” wingspan
Optimistic Comp: Chuck Hayes plus a credible jumper, or Paul Millsap minus post scoring
Position: Frontcourt Defender + Facilitator + Floor Spacer
Consensus Rank: Mid to Late Second Round
My Rank: Mid to Late First Round

There are so many reasons why scouts underrate Gary Clark.

He’s old.
He’s undersized.
His athleticism is unremarkable by NBA standards.
He lacks a signature skill.

Even Clark’s strengths are bland. His standout attributes are his consistent, intense effort and his high-level awareness, which tend to be undervalued traits in my estimation. I believe organizations typically overestimate the extent to which effort and awareness are responsive to coaching rather than intrinsic to the individual player.

Further, in my opinion Clark’s greatest strength is his fundamental lack of weaknesses, which is incredibly difficult to see while watching him for brief stretches. He’s an effective on-ball defender at multiple positions, an effective team defender, a plus rebounder who boxes out and goes after loose balls, a smart passer who makes good decisions quickly, a functional ball handler, and a much-improved shooter who I’d expect to be solid from mid-range in the short term and useful beyond the arc eventually. Most of these skills are showcased here in his AAC Conference Player of the Year video:

Clark has done basically everything you’d want to see from a 4-year player. He set a high baseline level of play as a freshman, and he improved every year thereafter. Check out this chart:

 
Clark increased his usage, shooting percentages, 3-point attempt rate, and assist rate every year while decreasing his turnover rate. You don’t see many big men with a 2:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, but Clark achieved that mark this season after coming close as a junior.

After witnessing Al Horford become arguably the most effective big man in the playoffs this year, maybe teams should reconsider how they weigh versatility and awareness versus physical dominance and scoring ability in the frontcourt. I would not be remotely surprised if Gary Clark emerges as a more useful NBA player than a couple of the big men projected as top-10 picks.

Bonus: In my last article, I set forth my all-underrated lineup including each of the above players and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, I promised 5 underrated prospects in the headline here, and 5 underrated prospects I shall deliver. So I now present a 6th man to add some size to the roster if my small-ball lineup isn’t up to the task.

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Raymond Spalding (Louisville) – 21.2 years old, 6’10.25” 215 pounds, 7’4.75” wingspan
Optimistic Comp: Larry Nance Jr.
Position: Energetic, Athletic Big Man (possibly with range)
Consensus Rank: Late Second Round to Undrafted
My Rank: Early Second Round

I guess I had to get a Louisville player in here somehow. It’s tradition. In the first year of this exercise, I identified Chinanu Onuaku as an underrated prospect. While that pick hasn’t panned out, my selection of Donovan Mitchell last year more than makes up for it. The proud Louisville lineage continues with Ray Spalding.

Spalding has a massive, nearly 7’5” wingspan giving him conventional center length and standing reach in a slimmer, more forward-like body. He’s an exceptionally mobile, fluid athlete who gets up off the ground quickly though his max vertical is merely average. That combination of physical gifts led to impressive numbers in the athletic indicator stats—including over 3 steals per 100 possessions both this year and as a freshman, which is outstanding for a big man—while also allowing him to switch onto smaller players without difficulty.

Yet the most intriguing thing about Spalding is his untapped offensive potential. This year his usage surged from 16% up to 23%, without much effect on his shooting percentages. He’s also raised his free throw percentage from terrible (50%) to respectable (64%). Digging further into the stats, his shot distribution suggests greater improvement, as most of his additional usage has come away from the basket. According to hoop-math, he quadrupled his number of jumpers made this year, from 15 to 60.

While Spalding shot very few 3s in his college career, there’s reason to believe he might become a 3-point threat in the NBA. Here’s a video of Spalding’s pro day workout highlighting his outside shooting ability both from a standstill and on the move.

He isn’t strong or bulky enough to mount much resistance against the Embiid and Cousins types, but fortunately he’s quick enough to slide down to the PF slot based on matchups. If his jumper does ultimately translate, he should be a competent rotation big man and perhaps more.

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That wraps up this year’s draft coverage. If you’re looking to read more, check out great sites like The Stepien and 94 Feet Report.