It’s been awhile. Since the last time I posted, (i) my all-time favorite prospect has won back to back MVPs and (ii) the league adopted my anti-tanking lottery reform proposal from 8 years ago.
But that’s not why I’m here. I’m back from semi-retirement because the Bulls have the 4th and 15th picks in one of the best possible drafts to have the 4th and 15th picks.
Given that there’s a consensus Big 4, the only way they can truly do wrong is by taking someone outside the Big 4 with the #4 pick. The first major question becomes, “Do the Bulls rank whoever falls to them (the “Big 4 leftover”) a tier above everyone else still on the board?” If the answer is YES, then the Bulls should draft him. If the answer is NO, then the Bulls should trade the pick to a team that agrees with the consensus and is willing to pay up for it.
Let’s go with the most likely possibility here and say the Bulls agree with the consensus, and the player left for them is Caleb Wilson. What’s next?
Like I said, this also looks like a very good draft for the #15 pick. Even with NIL pushing a few prospects back to college, the talent available through at least the middle of the first round seems better than many recent drafts.
Outside the Big 4, the guys I see as most likely to be leading a contender in 5 years are Ebuka Okorie and Dailyn Swain, and based on the mock drafts there’s a strong chance one or both of them will still be around at 15.
Starting with Okorie, it’s bizarre to me that there are 4 point guards consistently mocked in the 5-10 range (Acuff, Brown Jr, Flemings, and Wagler), yet you typically don’t see Okorie until 15-25. Okorie was arguably the most productive of the bunch this year while also being the youngest, getting to the rim the most, and having the longest wingspan and weakest supporting cast. His defensive metrics were much stronger than Acuff and Brown plus better in some respects than Wagler and even Flemings. His steal rate was higher than everyone but Flemings and his ratio of steals and blocks to fouls committed lapped the field. Stanford placed somewhere between 15th and 18th in the preseason rankings for the 18-team ACC, and they finished 9th with an even 9-9 record mostly due to Okorie lighting up the scoreboard and limiting turnovers despite being the focal point of every opposing defense.
Embed from Getty ImagesStylistically and statistically, one of Okorie’s nearest comps is Kemba Walker, though Okorie is significantly bigger (4+ inches of wingspan, 6.5 inches of standing reach). Kemba’s junior year with his memorable run through the tournament is about as close to 2026 Okorie as you can get by the stats, even more so when adjusting for context. Kemba’s shooting percentages were lower in line with era averages and a tougher strength of schedule, and his assists were slightly higher as his fellow starters included 2 future first round picks and a 2nd rounder, whereas it would be a major upset if anyone else on Stanford’s 2026 roster gets drafted. Both of them excel with their quickness on the ball, darting into the lane in isolation, off ball screens, and beating traps, and their stepback jumpers are tough to contest even against much taller defenders.
After a bit of a lull mid-season, Okorie really stepped up and reached a new level down the stretch as he figured out how to counter defenses geared to stop him. In his last 12 games, he averaged 26/4/4 while shooting 57% from 2, 47% from 3, and 86% at the FT line.
I like Dailyn Swain for some of the same reasons I was so high on SGA. The evolution from defensive stopper to offensive engine bodes extremely well for NBA success, and Swain did that quite effectively in his college career. After posting elite steal and block rates at Xavier, he transferred to Texas and became the leading scorer and primary ball handler for the nation’s #13 offense. Guys with his combination of size, athleticism, and offensive skill level are rare.
Swain also improved as the year went on and the competition got tougher. His usage and shooting efficiency both increased in conference play, where he averaged 20 points a game on 65.4% true shooting.
Although skeptics question his shooting mechanics as clunky with a slow release, I’m willing to bet long-term on the jumper of a guy who shot over 80% at the free throw line all 3 years. It’s also worth noting that he’s extremely young for a junior as he’s still 20 years old.
My next goal for the draft is to grab another pick in the back half of the first round, using current and/or future 2nd rounders and the ability to absorb unwanted contracts to make it happen. A few possible trade partners are the Hornets at #18 [Josh Green (1yr/$14M) and Tre Mann (1yr/$8M)], the Hawks at 23 [Cory Kispert (2yr/$27M)], and the Nuggets at 26 [Zeke Nnaji (2yr/$15M)]. Each of those players found themselves outside the rotation when it mattered, and none of their contracts is long or large enough to be an anchor on the Bulls moving forward. The Bulls currently look to have $50-55 million in cap space this summer.
And with that pick in the back half of the first round, the guy I’m targeting is Zuby Ejiofor.
In almost every mock draft, Zuby is slated to go somewhere between 25 and 35, yet I’m much higher on him than that. While I can’t say that I watch as much college basketball as I used to, I’d be tempted to rank him as my top frontcourt option outside the Big 4. He just does so much that positively impacts winning, with so few weaknesses. He was legitimately both the best offensive player and best defensive player in a major conference this year, an exceedingly uncommon achievement.
He also fits the mold of player who’s consistently the #3 guy on a championship team or high-level contender: strong, mobile, and physical, with long arms and the ability to seamlessly toggle among 2-3 frontcourt positions, the motor and awareness to lead or be a major contributor to a top defense, and connective offensive skills including ball-handling, passing, screening, quick decision-making, and shooting or slashing. In recent years, guys like Draymond Green, Bam Adebayo, OG Anunoby, and Aaron Gordon (Denver’s version) have fit this description. Thirty-nine years ago, the Bulls built their draft on a couple players like this: Scottie Pippen who hit the 99th percentile outcome and Horace Grant, an excellent player in his own right and more along the lines of what I’m describing and aiming for here. It’s a type of player that the Bulls sorely lack presently, as their frontcourt has a few guys with intriguing individual skill and athleticism but who lack strength, awareness, and a demonstrated ability to improve team performance on either end.
Embed from Getty ImagesIt’s crazy how good St John’s became this year and much of that was driven by Zuby. They finished the season #13 by KenPom, and over the second half of the regular season plus the conference and NCAA tournaments, they performed roughly as well as any team in the country. They won 21 of their last 23, with the only losses being at UConn and to Duke at a neutral site in a game that was tight the whole way through. In their last 15 games, they played 5 of them against top-10 defenses (Duke, Kansas, UConn x3) and a majority of them against top-25 defenses. Over that especially difficult stretch of 15 games to close out the season, Zuby made 60% of his 2s and 76% of his free throws while leading St John’s in scoring, and perhaps most impressively, he had 58 assists to just 25 turnovers. He was also the unwavering leader of a defense that ranked #11 in the nation. He deservedly was named the Big East’s Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and Tournament MVP.
At the combine, Zuby further showed why his NCAA success should translate to the pros. His outstanding production wasn’t just based on strength, effort, and experience but also impressive athleticism and size for his position. He tested like a typical wing in terms of his speed, agility, and vertical leap, but with the length of a power forward and bulk of a center. He fits exactly what the Bulls new front office claims to be looking for.
Finally, depending on how much the Bulls want to invest in a weak free agent class, I would be actively trying to trade Patrick Williams for a shorter deal with a higher annual cap hit. I recognize this is only tangentially related to the draft, but if, for example, they could trade Williams (3yr/$54M) for Jordan Poole (1yr/$34M) to allow New Orleans to improve their roster and stay under the tax, even if the Bulls have to kick in a 2nd rounder or two, count me in.
To recap my strategy:
- #4 = Big 4 leftover barring trade for a massive haul
- #15 = Ebuka Okorie or Dailyn Swain
- Trade up for Zuby by taking on salary
- Deal Patrick Williams for a shorter commitment at a higher AAV
Sound good? Looking forward to tomorrow night!
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